Climate Change – BC Government Research Branch, Updated July 2009

Well …. at least we know since 2009 that someone in the BC government has known about climate change. Click here to read the full report or an excerpt below.

 

Overview
Forest Science Program Climate Change Research
Current Research Focus Areas
Research Highlights
Recent Publications and Posters
Useful Links
Ministry Contact

Overview

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal. There is a high level of confidence that this warming is a result of human activities releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and agricultural activities. The Fourth Assessment Report presents a range of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios based on estimates of economic growth, technological development and international cooperation. Temperatures continue to rise for all scenarios with global mean temperatures averaging 2 to 4oC by the end of the century (Figure 1).

 

Figure 1. Simulated change in global mean temperature from 1900 to 2100 referenced to the 1980 – 1999 mean value. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B, and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th-century simulations. Shading denotes the 1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. (Figure SPM.5 in IPCC WG I 2007 [link].) The B1 and A2 carbon dioxide emission scenarios are shown here [link].

 

Figure 2. Mean annual temperature for British Columbia for 1961-1990 and that predicted for British Columbia in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080 for the A2 scenario from CGCM2 (Source ClimateBC v2.2).

Figure 3. Mean annual precipitation for British Columbia for 1961-1990 and the percentage change for British Columbia in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for the A2 scenario from CGCM2 (Source ClimateBC v2.2).

Climate in 2020s, 2050s, and 2030s for five locations in British Columbia for the A2 emission scenario.

Climate in 2030s for five locations in British Columbia for the B2 emission scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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